Data is coming in, giving us a picture of what audiences will look like when cultural organizations open up after COVID-19: in short, they’ll be small and nervous. Shugoll Research released its study of Washington, DC, theatergoers back in April, and earlier this week they released their national version. With only 36% of respondents saying they are very likely to return to theaters, and with 63% expecting to wait three months to a year before they venture out, Shugoll predicts that we will see a slow “trickle back” to theaters. Less than half of frequent attendees say they will return in the coming season, and 57% of those will wait “a few months”; 45% of the over-55 crowd say they’ll wait six months to return. Only 21% of them identify themselves as likely to return at all.On the same day Shugoll Research released their national survey results, Colleen Dilenschneider posted the latest on her ongoing COVID-19 audience study. While interest in attending something within the next three months has been growing, most people are still more likely to stay home for at least a year. (UPDATE: In her May 18 post, Dilenschneider notes that the three-month intention to return are at the same value now as they were this time last year, and one-month intentions are “rapidly recovering.”) When Dilenschneider asked people what would make them feel safe and comfortable in a cultural venue, 85% said having a COVID-19 vaccine; 65% said the lifting of restrictions. Sixty-four percent of Shugoll survey participants saying they’d come back if there was a vaccine, and 50% want to see increased cleaning and disinfecting.It’s frustrating to know that a lot of the things needed to attract audiences are out of one’s control (cultural organizations can’t simply order up a vaccine or lift government stay-at-home orders). It’s also concerning that audiences don’t want to make a move until other attendees get out there to test the safety of the environment first (61% percent of Dilenschneider’s subjects said seeing others visit would encourage them to return). It’s clear that, based on what we know now, this will be a very gradual, hesitant, fear-ridden trickle back.
Outside the High-Culture World Audiences Are More Brazen
The return may be a little less tentative, however, for venues and presenters outside the realm of high culture. When Enigma Research surveyed 2,000 Americans and Canadians who had attended a broader range of “live sports events, festivals, fairs, shows, or conferences within the last 24 months,” they found, on the other hand, that 76% are likely to return, and 48% are ready to attend a public event within one to two weeks of things opening up. Live Nation’s recent international survey of their customers showed that 91% are likely to attend a live music event post-COVID-19.While the majority of respondents to all four of these surveys want to see increased cleaning and disinfecting of venues, Live Nation and Enigma results show that their people are cold to additional measures that might affect the event experience. Only 21% of Live Nation respondents would attend an event if required to wear a mask, and 27% of Enigma respondents showed reluctance to wear a mask. In the Shugoll and Dilenschneider surveys, a vaccine is a prerequisite to returning for most (65% and 85%, respectively), but only 18% Enigma respondents need to have a vaccine to attend events again.The reason for the differences in attitudes could be attributed to age (high-culture attendees tend to be above 55, a vulnerable group), politics, or may even speak to the differences in behavior expected at events (I may not care if I have a mask at a chamber music performance, but at a rock concert, I might not want to scream my appreciation through a screen of cotton). It will be interesting to see how attitudes of fans of different activities continue to diverge, or converge, over time.
Mark Likes Music 
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